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Saturday, December 29, 2012
Sunday, December 23, 2012
Saturday, December 22, 2012
Last day for this year for me
Won't do any trading for the rest of the year. (Sounds like a long time, doesn't it?)
There were three opportunities to take advantage of yesterday. (One was RD, so perhaps that could have been ignored...)
I wish you all a very nice time and happy holidays until we meet in the beginning of january.
There were three opportunities to take advantage of yesterday. (One was RD, so perhaps that could have been ignored...)
I wish you all a very nice time and happy holidays until we meet in the beginning of january.
Monday, December 17, 2012
Psychology... or is it?
As you know I'm struggling a bit with pulling the trigger at the moment. A few too many losses in a row has done that to me. Not to worry, I'll get going again, but as for now I'm just a spectator.
Both was pointed out, and in hindsight they are excellent. When we were there, I didn't think so.
The first wasn't optimal, perhaps, since we had orange news coming up.
The second was available on 15 minutes timeframe.
Both was pointed out, and in hindsight they are excellent. When we were there, I didn't think so.
The first wasn't optimal, perhaps, since we had orange news coming up.
The second was available on 15 minutes timeframe.
Sunday, December 9, 2012
Definetly not a trading post
This is impressive.
What does it take to be good at this? Or trading?
http://www.wimp.com/impressivehand/
EDIT: Link for easy access.
What does it take to be good at this? Or trading?
http://www.wimp.com/impressivehand/
EDIT: Link for easy access.
Monday, December 3, 2012
Closing a winning trade...
... at the right time.
I got 6 pips from this. It was up a bit higher, but never reached 20.
Although not winning 20, I feel that this is what trading is about - reacting to what the chart tells you.
And the chart just said we had a bullish RD-trade with some nice resistance. (No, I didn't take that trade, because I was busy closing and documenting my trade. Maybe I should do it later on.)
I got 6 pips from this. It was up a bit higher, but never reached 20.
Although not winning 20, I feel that this is what trading is about - reacting to what the chart tells you.
And the chart just said we had a bullish RD-trade with some nice resistance. (No, I didn't take that trade, because I was busy closing and documenting my trade. Maybe I should do it later on.)
Placed in my new favourite category.
Future Reference.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Good trade...
... and we all missed it.
It is here for future reference.
Future reference is a new category on the blog that could be useful... (see the label below)
It is here for future reference.
Future reference is a new category on the blog that could be useful... (see the label below)
And what is the candle pattern called?
First correct answer wins a black and white colour radio.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Missed the good one
I just missed this one. Long shadow with RD.
Looked away and it was 2-3 ticks below my entry....
Normally we don't take RD trades, but with good resistance, it is hard not to.
Unless one misses it, of course. :)
Looked away and it was 2-3 ticks below my entry....
Normally we don't take RD trades, but with good resistance, it is hard not to.
Unless one misses it, of course. :)
Friday, November 23, 2012
Definetly not a trading post
A long weekend off from trading. I recommend a movie.
If you haven't seen it already, Skyfall was fracking brilliant.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
A debatable trade
I had to leave at 18:10 today, and when I left, I thought: "This is a trade most must have taken in the chat room."
So, did you?
Of course, that is depending on how you look upon the trading before/during the 18:00 reversal. (17:00 for you on a weird time scale.)
So, did you?
Of course, that is depending on how you look upon the trading before/during the 18:00 reversal. (17:00 for you on a weird time scale.)
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Definetly not a trading post
Hope you have a nice weekend.
Here is an old classic.
(Old, in internet-years, that is...)
Evolution of dance!
Here is an old classic.
(Old, in internet-years, that is...)
Evolution of dance!
Friday, November 16, 2012
Trading with hindsight
Penrice (?) said that it would have been easy to watch 2 charts on slow nights.
The 15 minute chart should be up at most times,(no, I don't have that too often) but it shouldn't be checked for trends, rather for its own trades. It follows the same rules as TWADJ does...
(Remember that a trade on 5 min can contradict a trade on 15 min. Trend-variations happen on 5 min charts first.)
The problem is that the candles are a bit bigger and thus also the SL. Always go for a 1:1 ratio. That's the best recommendation I've gotten...
With hindsight one could have taken this Extra TWADJ trade today.
The 15 minute chart should be up at most times,(no, I don't have that too often) but it shouldn't be checked for trends, rather for its own trades. It follows the same rules as TWADJ does...
(Remember that a trade on 5 min can contradict a trade on 15 min. Trend-variations happen on 5 min charts first.)
The problem is that the candles are a bit bigger and thus also the SL. Always go for a 1:1 ratio. That's the best recommendation I've gotten...
With hindsight one could have taken this Extra TWADJ trade today.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Definetly not a trading post
... and not really funny either.
But darn good. Any 35+ man can identify with it.
One have to like Brad Paisley, even if he stole Kimberly Williams.
But darn good. Any 35+ man can identify with it.
One have to like Brad Paisley, even if he stole Kimberly Williams.
And this was post 200!!!1!one!
Yeah!
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Forexfactory
Forexfactory is a great place to get the news. If there is something marked red in the news and it concerns the US, it is a good idea to sit any trade out that occurs just before (½ hour) the news.
Today, newly re-elected president Obama was going to speak. It was a yellow news-marker. Yellow means little or no impact on the market. BUT, according to Bloomberg he was going to talk about the fiscal cliff. That is not a popular subject among the traders. To be honest, Obama isn't popular among the traders to begin with. Those two factors hinted that the impact might be bigger than suggested.
And it was.
Lesson of today: Rely on more than one news-source.
He started speaking at 19:10 on the charts.
(Ignore the Regular Divergence. It was just to show how it is drawn.)
Today, newly re-elected president Obama was going to speak. It was a yellow news-marker. Yellow means little or no impact on the market. BUT, according to Bloomberg he was going to talk about the fiscal cliff. That is not a popular subject among the traders. To be honest, Obama isn't popular among the traders to begin with. Those two factors hinted that the impact might be bigger than suggested.
And it was.
Lesson of today: Rely on more than one news-source.
He started speaking at 19:10 on the charts.
(Ignore the Regular Divergence. It was just to show how it is drawn.)
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Interesting question
Here was a helluva trade... or maybe not.
The signal was 5 minutes before start, but the 'trigger' was bang on target.
Is it still a trade?
I have mailed Sir Nick and will let you know as soon as possible.
The signal was 5 minutes before start, but the 'trigger' was bang on target.
Is it still a trade?
I have mailed Sir Nick and will let you know as soon as possible.
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Close but it worked
I'm going to be more selective about trades posted here.
The trade have to have something special to be posted.
The post today is not really interesting, but it followed a 2% drop which wasn't the optimal start after the presidential election I suppose.
Also, it was very close to be stopped out, but it held. Phew. I'll never get used to those close calls.
The trade have to have something special to be posted.
The post today is not really interesting, but it followed a 2% drop which wasn't the optimal start after the presidential election I suppose.
Also, it was very close to be stopped out, but it held. Phew. I'll never get used to those close calls.
Money Management
I've done a lot of reading lately about how to handle your bankroll.
There are systems out there based on just placing a trade, and if it loses, double up the stakes... and so on.
That system is called Martingale, and it was invented in an attempt to beat the roulette in the 1700's.
Now, I did a lot of roulette-beating studies a few years back, and the reason one cannot beat it is that no matter what you do, the house has a 2,7% (5,4% on American Roulette) advantage on you. That means that in the long run you'll always lose. You might win a little while, but when you least expect it, it goes in to 14 reds in a row. (Now, try to double up that! 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048... etc. And the roof of the house is usally about 200, so you can see where it fails. And even if it didn't, I've seen 18 reds in a row. Imagine trying to bet that to gain 1.)
But here is what came from my roulette studies. No system can beat it, but if you had the upper hand, 2,7% in your favour, you'd win, no matter what you did, almost. You'd still lose the Martingale, though.)
The best system I ever saw was as follows.
Bet £4 on Red. If you lose, go to £5. If you still lost, bet £6. Won? Go back to £5. Won again? Start over, at £4.
In theory even if you just win every other bet, you'll win.
This is the closest I've seen beating the roulett, but it doesn't.
It doesn't mean that we can't use it for our trading. In fact, I found it to be excellent for trading. We have about 10-30% advantage on the house (the house in this case being the market).
On a 1:1 R:R trade, bet £4. If you lose, increase 25% (which means bet £5). Every time you win, you lower your stakes by 1, but no lower than £4, which is your base bet.
Naturally, this can vary a bit. If your BR is small, bet £1. If you lose, bet £ 1,25 etc... And if it is bigger, bet more. It is the ratio of base bet and increase that is most imporant.
I did a trial on this, and it is never above 7, and quite rarely above 5. There seems to be no risk in the bankroll being busted, yet it is quite profitable.
Here are my results. For simplicity I have counted 20 for a win and 20 for a loss. These are my 189 latest TWADJ trades. In the end, we'd won 740 more units with the Money Management than with the flat bet.
We always say that we shouldn't worry about money and focus on the pips, but to be honest, if we are to treat this as a business, how can we not be aware of the money at all times? What serious business owner would NOT know his financial status?
Hope it helps someone. Go and try it on your own results.
There are systems out there based on just placing a trade, and if it loses, double up the stakes... and so on.
That system is called Martingale, and it was invented in an attempt to beat the roulette in the 1700's.
Now, I did a lot of roulette-beating studies a few years back, and the reason one cannot beat it is that no matter what you do, the house has a 2,7% (5,4% on American Roulette) advantage on you. That means that in the long run you'll always lose. You might win a little while, but when you least expect it, it goes in to 14 reds in a row. (Now, try to double up that! 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048... etc. And the roof of the house is usally about 200, so you can see where it fails. And even if it didn't, I've seen 18 reds in a row. Imagine trying to bet that to gain 1.)
But here is what came from my roulette studies. No system can beat it, but if you had the upper hand, 2,7% in your favour, you'd win, no matter what you did, almost. You'd still lose the Martingale, though.)
The best system I ever saw was as follows.
Bet £4 on Red. If you lose, go to £5. If you still lost, bet £6. Won? Go back to £5. Won again? Start over, at £4.
In theory even if you just win every other bet, you'll win.
This is the closest I've seen beating the roulett, but it doesn't.
It doesn't mean that we can't use it for our trading. In fact, I found it to be excellent for trading. We have about 10-30% advantage on the house (the house in this case being the market).
On a 1:1 R:R trade, bet £4. If you lose, increase 25% (which means bet £5). Every time you win, you lower your stakes by 1, but no lower than £4, which is your base bet.
Naturally, this can vary a bit. If your BR is small, bet £1. If you lose, bet £ 1,25 etc... And if it is bigger, bet more. It is the ratio of base bet and increase that is most imporant.
I did a trial on this, and it is never above 7, and quite rarely above 5. There seems to be no risk in the bankroll being busted, yet it is quite profitable.
Here are my results. For simplicity I have counted 20 for a win and 20 for a loss. These are my 189 latest TWADJ trades. In the end, we'd won 740 more units with the Money Management than with the flat bet.
We always say that we shouldn't worry about money and focus on the pips, but to be honest, if we are to treat this as a business, how can we not be aware of the money at all times? What serious business owner would NOT know his financial status?
Hope it helps someone. Go and try it on your own results.
Trade | Pips | Trade/pip | Result | 5000 | Flat bet | Res without MM |
1 | 20 | 4 | 5080 | 4 | 5080 | |
2 | -20 | 4 | 5000 | 4 | 5000 | |
3 | 20 | 5 | 5100 | 4 | 5080 | |
4 | 20 | 4 | 5180 | 4 | 5160 | |
5 | 20 | 4 | 5260 | 4 | 5240 | |
6 | 20 | 4 | 5340 | 4 | 5320 | |
7 | 20 | 4 | 5420 | 4 | 5400 | |
8 | 20 | 4 | 5500 | 4 | 5480 | |
9 | 20 | 4 | 5580 | 4 | 5560 | |
10 | 20 | 4 | 5660 | 4 | 5640 | |
11 | 20 | 4 | 5740 | 4 | 5720 | |
12 | 20 | 4 | 5820 | 4 | 5800 | |
13 | 20 | 4 | 5900 | 4 | 5880 | |
14 | -20 | 4 | 5820 | 4 | 5800 | |
15 | -20 | 5 | 5720 | 4 | 5720 | |
16 | 20 | 6 | 5840 | 4 | 5800 | |
17 | 20 | 5 | 5940 | 4 | 5880 | |
18 | 20 | 4 | 6020 | 4 | 5960 | |
19 | 20 | 4 | 6100 | 4 | 6040 | |
20 | -20 | 4 | 6020 | 4 | 5960 | |
21 | 20 | 5 | 6120 | 4 | 6040 | |
22 | 20 | 4 | 6200 | 4 | 6120 | |
23 | 20 | 4 | 6280 | 4 | 6200 | |
24 | -20 | 5 | 6180 | 4 | 6120 | |
25 | 20 | 4 | 6260 | 4 | 6200 | |
26 | 20 | 4 | 6340 | 4 | 6280 | |
27 | 20 | 4 | 6420 | 4 | 6360 | |
28 | -20 | 4 | 6340 | 4 | 6280 | |
29 | 20 | 5 | 6440 | 4 | 6360 | |
30 | 20 | 4 | 6520 | 4 | 6440 | |
31 | 20 | 4 | 6600 | 4 | 6520 | |
32 | 20 | 4 | 6680 | 4 | 6600 | |
33 | 20 | 4 | 6760 | 4 | 6680 | |
34 | -20 | 4 | 6680 | 4 | 6600 | |
35 | 20 | 5 | 6780 | 4 | 6680 | |
36 | -20 | 4 | 6700 | 4 | 6600 | |
37 | 20 | 5 | 6800 | 4 | 6680 | |
38 | 20 | 4 | 6880 | 4 | 6760 | |
39 | 20 | 4 | 6960 | 4 | 6840 | |
40 | 20 | 4 | 7040 | 4 | 6920 | |
41 | 20 | 4 | 7120 | 4 | 7000 | |
42 | 20 | 4 | 7200 | 4 | 7080 | |
43 | 20 | 4 | 7280 | 4 | 7160 | |
44 | 20 | 4 | 7360 | 4 | 7240 | |
45 | 20 | 4 | 7440 | 4 | 7320 | |
46 | -20 | 4 | 7360 | 4 | 7240 | |
47 | 20 | 5 | 7460 | 4 | 7320 | |
48 | 20 | 4 | 7540 | 4 | 7400 | |
49 | -20 | 4 | 7460 | 4 | 7320 | |
50 | 20 | 5 | 7560 | 4 | 7400 | |
51 | 20 | 4 | 7640 | 4 | 7480 | |
52 | 20 | 4 | 7720 | 4 | 7560 | |
53 | 20 | 4 | 7800 | 4 | 7640 | |
54 | 20 | 4 | 7880 | 4 | 7720 | |
55 | 20 | 4 | 7960 | 4 | 7800 | |
56 | 20 | 4 | 8040 | 4 | 7880 | |
57 | 20 | 4 | 8120 | 4 | 7960 | |
58 | 20 | 4 | 8200 | 4 | 8040 | |
59 | 20 | 4 | 8280 | 4 | 8120 | |
60 | 20 | 4 | 8360 | 4 | 8200 | |
61 | 20 | 4 | 8440 | 4 | 8280 | |
62 | -20 | 4 | 8360 | 4 | 8200 | |
63 | 20 | 5 | 8460 | 4 | 8280 | |
64 | 20 | 4 | 8540 | 4 | 8360 | |
65 | 20 | 4 | 8620 | 4 | 8440 | |
66 | 20 | 4 | 8700 | 4 | 8520 | |
67 | 20 | 4 | 8780 | 4 | 8600 | |
68 | 20 | 4 | 8860 | 4 | 8680 | |
69 | 20 | 4 | 8940 | 4 | 8760 | |
70 | -20 | 4 | 8860 | 4 | 8680 | |
71 | 20 | 5 | 8960 | 4 | 8760 | |
72 | -20 | 4 | 8880 | 4 | 8680 | |
73 | 20 | 5 | 8980 | 4 | 8760 | |
74 | 20 | 4 | 9060 | 4 | 8840 | |
75 | 20 | 4 | 9140 | 4 | 8920 | |
76 | 20 | 4 | 9220 | 4 | 9000 | |
77 | 20 | 4 | 9300 | 4 | 9080 | |
78 | 20 | 4 | 9380 | 4 | 9160 | |
79 | 20 | 4 | 9460 | 4 | 9240 | |
80 | 20 | 4 | 9540 | 4 | 9320 | |
81 | -20 | 4 | 9460 | 4 | 9240 | |
82 | 20 | 5 | 9560 | 4 | 9320 | |
83 | 20 | 4 | 9640 | 4 | 9400 | |
84 | 20 | 4 | 9720 | 4 | 9480 | |
85 | -20 | 4 | 9640 | 4 | 9400 | |
86 | 20 | 5 | 9740 | 4 | 9480 | |
87 | 20 | 4 | 9820 | 4 | 9560 | |
88 | -20 | 4 | 9740 | 4 | 9480 | |
89 | 20 | 5 | 9840 | 4 | 9560 | |
90 | 20 | 4 | 9920 | 4 | 9640 | |
91 | 20 | 4 | 10000 | 4 | 9720 | |
92 | -20 | 4 | 9920 | 4 | 9640 | |
93 | 20 | 5 | 10020 | 4 | 9720 | |
94 | 20 | 4 | 10100 | 4 | 9800 | |
95 | 20 | 4 | 10180 | 4 | 9880 | |
96 | -20 | 4 | 10100 | 4 | 9800 | |
97 | 20 | 5 | 10200 | 4 | 9880 | |
98 | -20 | 4 | 10120 | 4 | 9800 | |
99 | 20 | 5 | 10220 | 4 | 9880 | |
100 | 20 | 4 | 10300 | 4 | 9960 | |
101 | 20 | 4 | 10380 | 4 | 10040 | |
102 | 20 | 4 | 10460 | 4 | 10120 | |
103 | -20 | 4 | 10380 | 4 | 10040 | |
104 | 20 | 5 | 10480 | 4 | 10120 | |
105 | 20 | 4 | 10560 | 4 | 10200 | |
106 | 20 | 4 | 10640 | 4 | 10280 | |
107 | 20 | 4 | 10720 | 4 | 10360 | |
108 | 20 | 4 | 10800 | 4 | 10440 | |
109 | 20 | 4 | 10880 | 4 | 10520 | |
110 | -20 | 4 | 10800 | 4 | 10440 | |
111 | 20 | 5 | 10900 | 4 | 10520 | |
112 | -20 | 4 | 10820 | 4 | 10440 | |
113 | 20 | 5 | 10920 | 4 | 10520 | |
114 | 20 | 4 | 11000 | 4 | 10600 | |
115 | 20 | 4 | 11080 | 4 | 10680 | |
116 | -20 | 4 | 11000 | 4 | 10600 | |
117 | 20 | 5 | 11100 | 4 | 10680 | |
118 | 20 | 4 | 11180 | 4 | 10760 | |
119 | 20 | 4 | 11260 | 4 | 10840 | |
120 | 20 | 4 | 11340 | 4 | 10920 | |
121 | -20 | 4 | 11260 | 4 | 10840 | |
122 | -20 | 5 | 11160 | 4 | 10760 | |
123 | 20 | 6 | 11280 | 4 | 10840 | |
124 | -20 | 5 | 11180 | 4 | 10760 | |
125 | 20 | 6 | 11300 | 4 | 10840 | |
126 | 20 | 5 | 11400 | 4 | 10920 | |
127 | 20 | 4 | 11480 | 4 | 11000 | |
128 | 20 | 4 | 11560 | 4 | 11080 | |
129 | 20 | 4 | 11640 | 4 | 11160 | |
130 | 20 | 4 | 11720 | 4 | 11240 | |
131 | 20 | 4 | 11800 | 4 | 11320 | |
132 | 20 | 4 | 11880 | 4 | 11400 | |
133 | -20 | 4 | 11800 | 4 | 11320 | |
134 | 20 | 5 | 11900 | 4 | 11400 | |
135 | -20 | 4 | 11820 | 4 | 11320 | |
136 | 20 | 5 | 11920 | 4 | 11400 | |
137 | 20 | 4 | 12000 | 4 | 11480 | |
138 | 20 | 4 | 12080 | 4 | 11560 | |
139 | 20 | 4 | 12160 | 4 | 11640 | |
140 | 20 | 4 | 12240 | 4 | 11720 | |
141 | 20 | 4 | 12320 | 4 | 11800 | |
142 | 20 | 4 | 12400 | 4 | 11880 | |
143 | 20 | 4 | 12480 | 4 | 11960 | |
144 | -20 | 4 | 12400 | 4 | 11880 | |
145 | 20 | 5 | 12500 | 4 | 11960 | |
146 | 20 | 4 | 12580 | 4 | 12040 | |
147 | 20 | 4 | 12660 | 4 | 12120 | |
148 | -25 | 4 | 12560 | 4 | 12020 | |
149 | 20 | 5 | 12660 | 4 | 12100 | |
150 | 20 | 4 | 12740 | 4 | 12180 | |
151 | 20 | 4 | 12820 | 4 | 12260 | |
152 | 20 | 4 | 12900 | 4 | 12340 | |
153 | 20 | 4 | 12980 | 4 | 12420 | |
154 | -20 | 4 | 12900 | 4 | 12340 | |
155 | 20 | 5 | 13000 | 4 | 12420 | |
156 | 20 | 4 | 13080 | 4 | 12500 | |
157 | 20 | 4 | 13160 | 4 | 12580 | |
158 | 20 | 4 | 13240 | 4 | 12660 | |
159 | 20 | 4 | 13320 | 4 | 12740 | |
160 | 20 | 4 | 13400 | 4 | 12820 | |
161 | 20 | 4 | 13480 | 4 | 12900 | |
162 | 20 | 4 | 13560 | 4 | 12980 | |
163 | -20 | 4 | 13480 | 4 | 12900 | |
164 | 20 | 5 | 13580 | 4 | 12980 | |
165 | 20 | 4 | 13660 | 4 | 13060 | |
166 | -20 | 4 | 13580 | 4 | 12980 | |
167 | 20 | 5 | 13680 | 4 | 13060 | |
168 | 20 | 4 | 13760 | 4 | 13140 | |
169 | 20 | 4 | 13840 | 4 | 13220 | |
170 | 20 | 4 | 13920 | 4 | 13300 | |
171 | -20 | 4 | 13840 | 4 | 13220 | |
172 | 20 | 5 | 13940 | 4 | 13300 | |
173 | 20 | 4 | 14020 | 4 | 13380 | |
174 | 20 | 4 | 14100 | 4 | 13460 | |
175 | -20 | 4 | 14020 | 4 | 13380 | |
176 | 20 | 5 | 14120 | 4 | 13460 | |
177 | 20 | 4 | 14200 | 4 | 13540 | |
178 | -20 | 4 | 14120 | 4 | 13460 | |
179 | -20 | 5 | 14020 | 4 | 13380 | |
180 | 20 | 6 | 14140 | 4 | 13460 | |
181 | -20 | 5 | 14040 | 4 | 13380 | |
182 | 20 | 6 | 14160 | 4 | 13460 | |
183 | 20 | 5 | 14260 | 4 | 13540 | |
184 | -20 | 4 | 14180 | 4 | 13460 | |
185 | 20 | 5 | 14280 | 4 | 13540 | |
186 | 20 | 4 | 14360 | 4 | 13620 | |
187 | 20 | 4 | 14440 | 4 | 13700 | |
188 | 20 | 4 | 14520 | 4 | 13780 | |
189 | -20 | 4 | 14440 | 4 | 13700 |